| Expenditure, Taxation, Diversity, Social Attitudes, Decarbonising |
A Political Diary |
| Three Things That Caught the Attention , Public Commentary in Wales in 2021 , December 13, 2021 |
Substance was added to the topic of independence by the Wales Governance Centre Wales. "Fiscal Future A path to sustainability?" was written by Guto Ifan, Cian Sion and Ed Gareth Poole. "The gap between total public spending for Wales and public sector revenues from Wales – amounted to £13.5 billion in 2018–19. This equated to around 18.0% of estimated GDP for Wales, or £4,300 per head, compared with the UK average of £620. Wales has the second highest fiscal deficit per person of the UK countries and English regions (Northern Ireland’s being higher), primarily due to lower tax revenues rather than higher public spending." "By contrast, the (much smaller) fiscal deficit per person in Scotland is primarily the result of higher public spending per person, while its public sector revenues per person are close to the UK average. "Although no official data exists, our rough estimate suggests the value of Wales’ imports exceed exports by some £13.1 billion, financed mostly by fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK, a share of UK government borrowing and partly by some private sector financial flows. "Wales’ working age population (16–64) is expected to fall by 2.6% by 2030 (assuming some inward migration). This will fall at a much faster rate if there is a decline in inward migration levels, as is likely given the recent proposals for immigration reform after Brexit. Meanwhile, the over-65 population in Wales will continue to grow. An ageing population will increase state pension spending and other age-related benefits and increase demand for health and social care. This is particularly concerning for Wales in the context of a declining working-age population and the associated risk to the tax base." Source: . https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/1767424/Wales_Fiscal_Future_FINAL.pdf * * * * The Wales Governance Centre study reported: In 2018, only 6.1% of Wales’ population was born outside of the UK, a significantly smaller share than the UK average of 14.3% (or 10.7% if excluding London)." Sociologically Wales is the most homogeneous part of Britain. This fact is in opposition to assertion that is common across Cardiff. “As a nation, Cymru is diversifying by leaps and bounds. We can no longer turn a blind eye to the huge kaleidoscope of cultures that exist within Cymru." That was Niki Jones from Yes Cymru, hyperbole with no basis in the reality of the world. It is the kind of assertion that contributed to the organisation's melt-down. The fact of an ageing population is reflected in attitudes. Hope not Hate, an organisation based in London, was commissioned to conduct research in Wales. From their findings: "Our poll finds that there is majority support for immigration across Wales, with a majority saying that, on the whole, immigration into Britain has been a good thing (56%) and 44% saying it has been bad. This support is lower than in England, where our last Fear and Hope report found the proportion of those saying immigration had been a good thing for Britain stood at 63%, up from 60% in July 2018, and 40% in February 2011. "And although we found more support for immigration among younger people, the proportion of 18-24s who felt that immigration into Britain had been a good thing was just 60%. 40% felt it had been a bad thing, though those aged 25-34 were more likely to see the benefits (66%). "And 52% of Labour voters say they are worried about the arrival of new immigrants in their community, a higher proportion than for Conservative voters (45%) "Our polling reflects widespread hostility towards Muslims in Wales. Overall, a third of Welsh people (34%) believe that Islam poses a threat to the British way of life- only 24% say Islam is generally compatible with the British way of life – This compares with 30% of people across England who perceive Islam to be a threat. "Wales has long played an important role in the Blood & Honour movement (B&H), the umbrella group for white power skinheads. In 1992 three members of the white power band Violent Storm, formed in 1986, died in a car crash on the M4. The anniversary of their death continues to be marked by an annual Blood & Honour concert, with proceeds reportedly going to their families. Violent Storm was followed by Celtic Warrior, Blackout, Redneck 28 There may well be a methodological weakness. Immigration for a London researcher means one thing. The same word for many in rural Wales means movement from England. Source: https://hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Fear-and-Hope-Wales-202108-FINAL.pdf * * * * The Minister announced that Llanbedr, a notorious bottleneck on the Gwynedd coast, would not be getting its bypass. Critics pointed out that investment requires infrastructure. John Ball, a reliable contributor to Wales' public discourse, reported with his usual rigour. "Take materials. Products and services that reduce carbon emissions have an eye-watering cost. The price of minerals used in car batteries has risen 139% in the past year, lithium has risen by 200%, copper by 70% and there are concerns over the supply of nickel and balsa wood for wind turbine blades. To meet demand, the annual production of critical metals used in carbon reducing products is forecast to rise by 500% per annum. "The twenty-three million gas boilers in the UK (of which 1.3 million are in Wales) must go and, in their place, air source and ground sources pumps. They are unproven, expensive, require building alterations and are not ready for mass roll out. They cost between £14,000 and £19,000 to install, take time to warm up, operate at lower temperatures and invariably require larger radiators or solar panels to compensate "The pumps run through horizontal trenches but properties with small gardens require a bore hole of over one hundred metres. Quite how this will work in the thousands of terraced houses in Wales with a small or no garden is anyone’s guess. In addition, the requited specialist installation and maintenance skills are simply not available. "Meanwhile, the Welsh Government has published grand plans outlining our bid to save the world whilst ignoring real and immediate practical steps within its power. Take the plans for three thousand new houses in north Swansea. Planning consent was refused on a number of grounds, not least local services, structure and traffic congestion. The developer appealed and a Welsh government inspector overturned the refusal. "Limited services mean accessing schools and shops will require a car, at least one per household and thus three thousand or more cars. One of the selling points – surprise surprise – is nearness to the M4; already a car park for much of the day. Congestion, even with electric cars, will lead to more environmental degradation with eventual widening of the M4. Business parks continue to be developed in out-of-town sites; a nice new Lidl store outside Llanelli boasts 250 free car parking spaces. Do not expect to catch a bus." Source: https://nation.cymru/opinion/theres-no-denying-global-warming-but-were-still-in-denial-about-the-scale-of-the-challenge-of-tackling-it/ |
Reviewed by: Adam Somerset |
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